Agreed. And his doom words have set a 1000 mouths in the Pentagon/Whitehall/August 1st Building/Kremlin salivating with excitement.
Take China, for example. Look at any recent ML conference, and see the fraction of articles majority-authored from Chinese universities and labs. Do you think they'll slow things down anytime soon? I don't think so!
It's a global arms race, and we're just spectators.
Yes, skills that are actually used count toward token consumption.
The question is whether the number of tokens required to achieve a certain behavior/intelligence/quality is equal between you manually providing those tokens via skills versus the model "deriving" the "skills" it needs on-the-fly in order to produce the outcome you want.
The claim above is that the former requires far fewer tokens.
Also skills only consume tokens when they are used, and part of the value is that the model will dynamically find and disclose only what's needed (assuming the skill is "well-designed").
Their claim is not about the prompt or skill tokens, it's about output tokens - skills can help the model bypass some thinking tokens or avoid reasoning deadends, and that way reduce output token usage. That's what they seem to have found empirically from their testing. (If it's truly 2x-4x, the time savings in waiting for the output is a pretty nice benefit too.)
Sergey Brin (of Google fame) was known for "dating" young interns/employees at Google in the early days. Once, when HR reminded him that he could get into trouble (since it was against policy), his response was, basically (paraphrasing) along the lines of "Why am I hiring them then?"
Basically, he considered it is his right to have his way with his young interns and employees.
I don't necessarily doubt that this happened, but it's worth pointing out that this anecdote is from Adam Fisher's 2018 report of what Charlie Ayers recounted that HR told him Brin said, twenty years after the fact. Maybe it happened that way, maybe not.
The first person hedged their statement with "I heard once" so it's likely true regardless of whether the rest is accurate.
In a similar vein it has been said (by me, just now) that DeBeers is actually already out of diamonds and manufactures then de novo from the compressed ashes of orphans.
Well, I heard it was the Epstein-Trump Boating School For Children, which taught vulnerable youngsters how to get away from Epstein’s child-rape island.
I'll provide a citation since I'm in this industry and watch it closely.
De Beers currently has about 2 billion worth of diamond stock in its holds. This equates to about... 5-6 months of sales volume. It used to be worth more but lab-grown and other re-valuing initiatives have dropped the worth of their hoard.
Ariane is from the ESA, which is an organization under EU. The claim was that "EU is finally decoupling itself from the USA". My point is: the EU already has Ariane, for instance. It decoupled a long time ago.
I met a senior (as in, 4th year of college) recently and she asked me: what advice do you have for someone just graduating in the AI age? (as I had told her that I've been in ML for 20+ years, etc.)
My recommendation to her was: just _play_ with the AI! It's a brand new tool, and none of us knows its capabilities, limitations, boundaries etc. (which are fluid, of course). So just spend as much time as you can tinkering with it, playing with it, making it do things it was not expected to do, etc. and you'll develop an idea of how to make better use of it.
I don't mean to sound like a conspiracy theorist, and this is just based on my 33 years of observing the USG at work, so: maybe because Anthropic refused to cooperate with the USG and give them access to whatever it is that they (USG) wanted; or maybe because Anthropic was refusing to play ball in some other aspect and needed to be taught a lesson.
The dark parts of the USG act like a mafia. Don't let the "freedom, democracy, 'bill of rights'" etc. charade fool you.
As someone who spent countless nights tweaking Edge Detectors (looking at you, Canny), morphology operators, etc., building models to recognize 10 handwritten digits, let me tell you: the current set of LLMs (even the smaller ones) seem like magic. I had never imagined a computer would do such things in my lifetime.
Exactly people can say whatever they want, but current level of LLM is AGI level to me. It is already on par with senior programmer if the instruction/prompt is right.
Once we have 1000 tps, i am sure robots etc.. will also start working like magic.
I don’t know, I am writing a modest 30 page paper with Fable and even after rounds and rounds of feedback and improvements there are so many things that are just plain wrong or weirdly out of place or just stupidly written that Fable 5.1 doesn’t seem to have any awareness of by itself that I don’t think it’s AGI, I think a human researcher can easily outclass it in writing and problem understanding. It definitely has super human capabilities but it lacks awareness or self reflection in my opinion.
For example it should be easy to tell it to not write a paper in the style of a clickbait SEO article or use all of its stupid hallmark AI writing patterns “it’s A, not B!” And a smart human that would be told that would be easily able to comply with that but the model needs to be told in a very detailed way and it seems to lack even basic capabilities to reflect on this, when explicitly given a sentence it will be able to rewrite it but otherwise it’s mostly blind to it. That’s to me a hallmark of it being overtrained on the specific tasks or problems so it appears very smart but once you go off script it still shows that it’s not a “real” mind.
Of course it’s amazing and has super human capabilities in many areas but if you honestly think it’s better than Einstein like some people suggest why can’t it write a simple “good” academic paper even after giving it specific examples and instructions.
Maybe that’s what makes these things dangerous, they have super human capabilities in some areas but apparently lack self awareness, taste and meta reflection abilities. The only reason people aren’t afraid more is that they don’t act in the physical world yet, imagine giving it a body, superhuman strength and letting it care for your child when it has a strong “urge” to comply with your exact request and little to no self awareness and human basic instincts.
Though what has a program that is really really good at edge detection have to do with AGI? The community just spent decades to perfect edge detection. That's great! But let your edge detector try to fry an egg and then tell me again that it's AGI.
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