Yes but in this case, tens or hundreds of people know the outcome months in advance. I'm very surprised that the market doesn't immediately converge to 100% for one candidate. The winner is not really a forecastable 'random event' in that by the time the show is airing, it's not being pulled from a distribution.
In theory, an insider willing to take any positive-expectation bet would drive the market price arbitrary close to the correct answer, but in practice they might be under NDA and want to avoid getting caught, or they limit their bet amount for other reasons, so the market ends up dominated by gamblers placing uninformed bets.
Maybe the people who could take advantage of these markets are just not sufficiently aware of their existence.
I predict that in 5 years "who wins Survivor" will be completely dead though, because the markets will have become common knowledge and there'll be enough people willing to violate their NDAs/whatever for the money.
In none of those cases did the market converge as a result of the insider betting, it was only discovered with hindsight that someone had placed a suspiciously well-timed large bet. So that's where "they limit their bet amount for other reasons" comes in. I guess it's difficult to get a large loan for "I know a secret that will allow me to double my money in a few days, honest!" so they have to make do with their savings instead.
Why are OpenAI so keen to start calling things AGI?
Isn't there some corporate/legal shenanigans where they become a real non-profit at that point? Or does it just let them cut Microsoft and other investors out?
There's got to be a business reason for it unrelated to the model capabillities.
This is a really good proof of concept. I would use this.
Something about the moment of the turn itself isn’t working for me though. Just before the turn you have essentially no information about the route ahead, until after the turn is completed. This would make a sequence of consecutive turns difficult to navigate.
This is exactly why on traditional gps maps I prefer it to be very very zoomed out. It's far too common that mapping tools make something like a sudden second turn invisible to you until it is too late to switch lanes.
I find that Apple Maps is typically pretty smart with its automatic zoom. For a typical intersection with just one turn to navigate, it will zoom in to give you a good sense of the lanes, stop signs/lights, etc. But when there are consecutive turns to navigate, or a heavily curved section of road (like highway on-ramps) it will zoom out and even rotate the map to show that upcoming context.
It might be fine for pure navigation to addresses but business addresses and other metadata are often missing or out of date because people only bother to update Google Maps. Also that’s where all the reviews are.
I don’t want to use two different apps for navigation vs finding businesses.
I've used it almost exclusively since around 2019, but that has been in the Bay Area and LA area where the data has presumably been very good relative to other areas.
I remember for at least a while people would complain about how GPS navigation ruined their sense of the local area. Probably stopped hearing about it because people have just surrendered to the apps, but I think part of the reason is also that by default they were just zoomed in way too close. If you forced them back out a ways, I was actually learning a lot about my local area. Like, there's all these subdivisions around, you know, and from the outside who knows what connects to what, I'm not going to just duck in to a subdivision and physically navigate the streets to see how they're all connected, but driving around with the navigation made it much more clear... when it was zoomed out somewhat.
This is also a problem with Google Maps navigation. It is always showing the perspective looking straight ahead of your current direction, even when you're approaching a sharp turn. Instead, the perspective should be along a vector connecting your current location with the point where the navigation's path crosses the edge of the display, pointing straight up.
So why not use 2D maps, have people lost the ability to read North up maps? I swear ever since paper maps have not been used in cars, people have gotten spatially dumber.
I love north-up maps because I find they give me way better spatial context. My truck’s nav system gives north-up as an option but my phone and my truck map both suffer from the same problem on different axes. My phone sits in its holder vertically, so I have way more north-south context than east-west. The truck screen is landscape, same problem north-south! A square map north-up would be amazing!
2D map would work the same way with my proposal. The "north is up" part is the issue for me, I'd like to have the rotation oriented in such a way that (the visible part of the path to) my destination is up.
Yes, this is how it's currently implemented. My proposal is "up is the intersection of the path with the edge of the screen". Here's a mock comparison of the current behavior with my proposal: https://i.imgur.com/AmUnzfS.jpeg (The mocked perspective is wrong because I just cut out and rotated the image, but hopefully you get the idea)
I had similar thoughts, but this is a largely solved problem: even headlights in my Volvo turn as I turn the wheel, and it should be easy to change rendering direction to an "average" of road tangents for the next say 50m (would depend on the speed and would need experimenting to know the best value).
I’m going to get pwned one of these days, considering my threshold for giving a random website access to my webcam is apparently mild curiosity and entertainment for 30s.
But more generally, if I’m the sort of person who would allow this I’d probably allow some other stupid permissions if they promised me something novel on the other side.
Maybe try hiding your face below the camera and throwing your hands up in the sky so the camera only sees your hands then play/sing Metallica.
[Chorus]
Never cared for what they do
Never cared for what they know
But I know
[Refrain]
So close, no matter how far
It couldn't be much more from the heart
Forever trusting who we are
And nothing else matters
The general tendency among people is to go along with what's thrown to them, in a Symphony of Destruction, Megadeath
[Refrain]
You take a mortal man
And put him in control
Watch him become a God
Watch people's heads a-roll
A-roll
A-roll
[Chorus]
Just like the Pied Piper
Led rats through the streets
We dance like marionettes
Swaying to the symphony of destruction
That's hilarious side by side with stories about cops abusing surveillance to stalk their ex, and women generally.
So you don't fear being victimised and don't plan to ever stand up for those who do. Not very unique, I'd say that's the primordial slime we all come from... but why stay in it?
Your reaction to mentioning concerns about mass surveillance was to make a fucking joke about you pooping. That joke's on you, says only something about you, as does how you're trying to turn this into me doing you this awesome injustice by... reading what you wrote and connecting the dots. You couldn't hold in the smirk, you can't take the smirk having been seen. Both are your problem.
>>>>> It's very comforting to think that somewhere deep within the NSA is a person whose job it is to watch my face while I poop.
I made what was clearly a fucking joke about me, myself, pooping, as you now admit.
>>> So you don't fear being victimised and don't plan to ever stand up for those who do.
You turned that fucking joke into a beliefs system.
>>> That's hilarious side by side with stories about cops abusing surveillance to stalk their ex, and women generally.
A beliefs system specifically about women, no less.
>> Why, are you denying it?
You requested that I defend the beliefs system that you invented.
> Your reaction to mentioning concerns about mass surveillance was to make a fucking joke about you pooping. That joke's on you, says only something about you, as does how you're trying to turn this into me doing you this awesome injustice by... reading what you wrote and connecting the dots. You couldn't hold in the smirk, you can't take the smirk having been seen. Both are your problem.
From all of this, I can only surmise that you are literally insane.
Do not contact me again about this or any other matter. Your harassment is both unwanted, and unwarranted. There is nothing further here to discuss.
If you have any concerns, please email them to hn@ycombinator.com
Well they have your IP....and browser fingerprints....rough time of day if a window, direction, weather....products you bought....your age...possibly health issues that come up....essentially any information that can be used to schedule and stalk you...
Yeah. It certainly can.... Obviously if you have any products that are imaged online then they can be extrqcted and reverse searched to see what you bought, and get an idea of your wealth, status, and area if you have specific regional goods.... they can also see if you have physical tics say, or you may have medical equipment or medicine, or coufh syrup...or you may be an amputee, or in a wheel chair....yes...
"An overdriven webcam sensor reconfigures its pixels into an AI-steered optical phased array, discharging the laptop's total electrical power as a lethal, coherent laser pulse the instant your hand moves."
Then it rendered the page load with '<html><h1>"You have been theremin ated".'
Unihemispheric sleep has been used by cults for mind control because it puts you in a vulnerable mental state (for example https://zizians.info/#unihemispheric-sleep). So anybody reading this and interested in trying it, ensure you’ve done sufficient research first.
It’s more that it just came out of nowhere. I agree with you that competition with the US on AI is net good, but by presenting lots of (imo) unrelated points I can’t just endorse the comment. And I’m not here to debate partisan talking points or speculate on why Europe isn’t participating in the AI race.
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