Referring to countries as "shithole countries" does not help in understanding the current dynamic between rich and poor nations. So perhaps it is helpful to understand what that is, without the pejoratives.
Firstly, each country is different. So the relationship between say the USA and Mexico is different to the relationship between the USA and say Ethiopia.
By "richness" we might also be better off thinking as less "spare cash" and more "standard of living". Which includes food, housing etc but also security, safety etc.
In truth much of the US "richness" depends on other nations. If there was no Latin labor the US would have a fresh produce problem. Indeed the very premise of DJT is that the US has a trade deficit with just about everyone. Much of US "richness" is thus dependent on the "poorness" of others.
Yes automation, cheaper energy, AI can reduce the labor content of goods and make them universally cheaper. Yes I believe in a future where the overall standard of living increases.
But it would be a mistake to believe the US is "leading" US there. The US achieved its current position at the barrel of a gun, and uses the military (and threat of military) to interfere with countries and regions either overtly or covertly. The entire premise of the cold war (outside of western europe) was premised on interventions to resist countries switching their political model to something the locals preferred.
And yes, maybe the locals preferred wrong. But the US didn't promote democracy, they promoted "willingness to keep supplying us". Countries which were leaning away from the US had to be punished. (Shah in Iran, Vietnam etc.)
I could go on, but I'll stop there. Suffice to say that an equitable standard of living is not in the (current) interest of most US citizens.
Exactly, it is already priced in. Try setting up shop in the middle of some really bad country and you will soon realize why food is not getting there.
Regarding 1, it's not clear what you want them to actually do. Would you rather they just gave up, rolled over and died instead of at least trying to rescue their field? What is to be gained from considering this?
I suppose you could say, hypothetically, that if the field were “solved” then the protection of the feelings and sense of need for human understanding of the now obsolete practitioners might hinder any benefits that the now solve field could provide.
The answer to this is probably just “get out of the way” and then your “work” would be to develop a better appreciation of what has been produced.
> The answer to this is probably just “get out of the way” and then your “work” would be to develop a better appreciation of what has been produced.
They aren't in the way. AI labs can do their own math all they want, and nobody is stopping them. Rather, mathematicians are simply speaking about the topic.
They absolutely are in the way. We’ve had the most exciting months of mathematical progress since antiquity, and the vast majority of voices from mathematicians have been bitching about one thing or the other, to the extent that they now got themselves a committee that (co-)decides when, how, and possibly if, the next batch of results is made available to the public.
People merely speaking their mind does not constitute getting in the way.
I'm sorry that you personally don't like that mathematicians are "bitching" about OpenAI snaking their work out from under them, and would like to silence them. But if we're going for consistency's sake, maybe consider taking your own advice here before giving it to others.
In the meantime, OpenAI can do whatever they want, mathematically-speaking. Nobody is in their way. If there isn't further meaningful progress from them, that would seem to strengthen the work-product-theft hypothesis.
Please. Have you been doing mathematics ? Yes, some big open problems are solved. I have not seen the ideas therein used to solve related or other problems. That is the point of most mathematics: to develop frameworks and general techniques for understanding and solving problems, not solving one-off problems.
For example, group theory lead to a useful way of thinking about how to solve a wide array of problems. That is what mathematicians are seeking.
> the feelings and sense of need for human understanding of the now obsolete practitioners might hinder any benefits that the now solve field could provide
Wiping out an occupation that people enjoy and that gives them purpose (making them "obsolete") is a public mental health crisis, if anything. It's unclear that the "benefits" of the "solved" field actually outweigh that.
If LLMs could both prove any relevant theorem, explain such a theorem cogently and lay the groundwork for further theory, I don't see how any way mathematicians could stand in the way of that.
> one of the obvious applications of novel mathematical results is in building stronger AI models.
This gets repeated a lot and seems to be one of the primary stated goals of making AI solve math problems, but I still have no idea by what mechanism this is even supposed to happen. I guess they could make some minor improvements to matrix multiplication algorithms or whatever but I don't see what groundbreaking theorem could possibly significantly improve LLMs.
It's the kind of thing where it's sort of expected that you wouldn't know, right?
I think we don't really understand why deep learning works as well as it does, the thinking around that is, as far as I can tell, mostly a collection of empirical observations.
A fundamental theory of learning that can be used to predict optimal network architectures might enable smaller models that consume less energy.
> Also, his opinion of AI has continually changed in the past years, after the capabilities were demonstrated.
Ignoring the other ridiculous parts of your comment, isn't this exactly what you're supposed to do? Update your beliefs according to the newest information available?
Yes , you are supposed to do. That doesn’t change the fact that he has no insight into technology, and is a bandwagon person.
If I’m a mathematician, I can write public posts on math. Extensive posts about politics, AI, crypto, … are not useful without expertise in those domains
This is true, but I'm not sure it matters? I was poking around at the lichess database recently and those elo calibrated bots are
remarkably well calibrated, their rating variance sticks out like a sore thumb compared to human players even at similar game volumes. So it should still be a decent predictor of how good a human at that level is, even if the playstyle seems alien.
This is simply blatant misinformation. If you play a game online on lichess and go to the analysis board you can find when your game becomes novel. It will be within 20 turns unless you are intentionally following a known opening. In fact it will likely become unique within 10-15 turns.
It's not my experience at all. If you find yourself in a novel position within 10-15 moves it's likely a resignable one.
Edit: maybe you don't understand what i mean by novel position. I mean any position that has never been reached in the billions of lichess games, including bullet games among beginners.
Also yes I will concede that it's possible to make "quiet" moves. pawn nudges that barely affect anything. If you're doing those you're not 1500 ELO. You're intentionally trying to throw wrenches and I just don't see why an ELO bot even needs to bother with nonsense like that. This is supposed to be for fun / training!
> Now, Tao is a sort of a celebrity of the quarter on HN, but I promise you that outside this forum, almost no one has ever heard of him.
This is an absurd thing to say. Hacker news is not the only place that knows about the most famous mathematician in the world. Glancing at Google Trends he seems to be roughly as famous as Linus Torvalds. Not exactly a household name but by no means obscure.
Ask 1000 different individuals if Terrence Tao rings a bell. If 5% or less can answer you who Tao is, it is safe to say that Tao is obscure.
I'd be very surprised if you can find over 50 individuals, out of the 1000, who can tell you who Terrence Tao is. Even big names like Euler or Gauss would surprise me.
I'm going to charitably assume that you forgot to include quotes around the names in your query, because that's absolutely not what Google Trends shows.
Stop 100 people on the street in NYC or Berlin or Tokyo and I bet none of them will be able to name any living mathematician. A few of them might know Linus, though.
Yes, it absolutely is what it shows[0]. I have no idea what data you're looking at that suggests otherwise. Worldwide or in the US, as public individuals or as search terms with quotes or without quotes, over any reasonable timespan, they get roughly the same amount of searches.
He was specifically working on the Euler equations, which are the Navier-Stokes equations with the viscosity term removed. This is definitionally a smaller related problem. I'm not sure how you are calling that claim wrong.
Which seems to be entirely true by their own admission! [0] Both the comments about him risking his career and about Levent's authorship seem to have indeed occurred.
> 2) I never ever asked for Levent to be removed from authorship of his own work (as indicated by my text). I was surprised to learn during the call with Tristan that they had only solved Euler and not Navier-Stokes; after learning this we brainstormed possible paths forward. One option we discussed was that Tristan could be the lead author on a rewrite of OpenAI’s Navier-Stokes proof. It is in that context that I said “it would be simpler if Levent was not an Anthropic employee” because I felt it would be inappropriate for an Anthropic employee to author OpenAI’s work. Importantly it was admitted that internal Anthropic models had been used in their proof of Euler blowup; I therefore felt I could not consider Levent to be an independent academic. Another option I wanted to propose (but got cut short) is to offer access to our internal model so that they could try to finish their proof and bridge the gap between Euler and NS. Again I did not know how to navigate giving access to internal OpenAI IP to an Anthropic employee.
> 3) To reiterate it plainly: as my text clearly indicates, and as I said during our call, OpenAI's intention was to do everything possible to celebrate their mathematical achievements and the heroic efforts that they made on Euler. In the call I was immediately met with a litany of slander, including direct threats that if we were to announce Navier-Stokes he would immediately go to the press with a barrage of unfounded accusations. I refuted all these accusations but he replied “there is nothing you can do, I simply do not trust you”. I was confused why one would turn an incredible source for celebration (of their achievements!) into such bickering, which is when I said that I did not understand why one would risk their career [over unfounded accusations]. Genuinely, at that moment, I was trying to care for him and do a last ditch attempt to get a chance to give them all the credits that they deserve. I deeply apologize for this extremely poor choice of words, it is the opposite of what I was trying to convey. (I should say that I retracted them on the spot by the way.)
Seems like OpenAI did a boring normal corporate thing (find out your competitor made a breakthrough, try to replicate it) and then when the other mathematicians found out OpenAI had beat them to Navier-Stokes, they decided to lie about what happened because they were upset they didn't get to make the big breakthrough themselves.
The available information is essentially that story.
OpenAI's account: they heard a rumor that a Millennium Prize problem had been solved, so they tried to do it themselves and succeeded. Then they contacted the other researchers and were surprised to discover those guys hadn't actually cracked it, but offered the one of them who's not an Anthropic employee a co-authorship anyway. The conversations got testy.
Buckmaster's account: totally unsubstantiated accusations of plagiarizing from chat logs and plainly false accusations of OpenAI trying to get Alpoge removed as coauthor of a thing he was not an author of in the first place, and threats to ruin people's careers.
I think the synthesis is basically that Buckmaster and Alpoge had not quite solved the Navier-Stokes problem yet but thought they were really close, and had told friends as much, which is how the rumors got out. Now they're mad they got scooped. They aren't getting the money and recognition they thought they had locked down, and are engaging in a smear campaign.
I don't think your reading is correct. ML history is related with examples of models using hints from side channels.
If it would be possible to replicate OpenAIs success with a model cut-off earlier than the rumours, and without hinting from informed mathematicians, then we can consider it original. Otherwise it's indefensible.
By Buckmaster's own account, OpenAI (a) wanted him and Alpoge to publish their Euler result first and (b) wanted Buckmaster to author the Navier-Stokes paper, and (c) when he refused both of those, tried to get Alpoge to talk him into it.
Why would OpenAI go burn another $20 million trying to prove they didn't accidentally train on synthetic data derived from Buckmaster's codex sessions? They're desperately trying to give him credit anyway!
The only problem with this narrative is that they refused to allow the other coauthor to be listed because he worked at Anthropic.
That is absolutely *ridiculous* in academia to deny authorship because of affiliation of the author worked on a substantial portion. You’d be ostracized because nobody would ever want to work with you again.
Because OpenAI employees kept leaking that Anthropic had a solution to Navier-Stokes and he wanted to figure out what was going on, since he was working on Navier-Stokes with an Anthropic employee. The rumor has been loudly circling the math community for the past week or so. For a bit of context, here's a timeline from mathematician and AI researcher Elliot Glazer:
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